My Preseason Picks: 2017: Group of Five

My Preseason Picks of 2017: Group of Five

Although these conferences are not as strong as the Power 5, they still feature exciting conference races between teams with high-scoring offenses and opportunistic defenses.  

1.  American Conference 

American East Champions:

USF (South Florida) Bulls

This pick was certainly one of the easiest ones to make.  The Bulls will be led by returning quarterback Quinton Flowers who amassed 42 touchdowns between passing and rushing.  Their starting lineup on defense is loaded with 6 highly experienced seniors and 3 talented juniors.  On top of that, USF has a noticeably easy schedule that makes it very possible that the Bulls could go undefeated.  New head coach Charlie Strong, fired from Texas after last season, has gleaned enough knowledge from leading a team in the stronger Big 12 Conference to do an adequate job at his new home.

American West Champions:

Memphis Tigers

The West division also features a team with an exceptional returning quarterback.  Riley Ferguson tallied 32 TD passes along with over 3,600 yards.  Supporting him with be a stable of running back, headlined by speedy Doroland Dorceaus.  The Tigers should be able to win their division if they just take care of the football, i.e. limit the turnovers. 

Championship Game Winners:

USF Bulls

2.  Mountain West Conference (MWC)

MWC Mountain Division Champions:

Boise State Broncos

The usual champions of the Mountain West, the Boise State Broncos, have recently fallen off the top of the mountain due to unexpected regular season losses.  This has opened the door for San Diego State to grab a couple conference championships.  But I expect a resurgence out of the Broncos this year with the return of accurate quarterback Brent Rypien.  If he just improves on his decision-making, throwing less needless interceptions in other words, the Broncos will be able to win the close games they lost last year.  The star running back of last year, Jeremy McNichols, has graduated but the Broncos are confident sophomore Alexander Mattison can pick up the slack.  Plus, if the defense can gets their hands on plenty of turnovers, Boise State could find themselves on the top of the mountain again. 

MWC West Division Champions:

San Diego State Aztecs

The Aztecs are a run-heavy offense, not requiring a super talented quarterback to manufacture points. All they need is a solid game manager who makes smart decisions.  Junior Christian Chapman is just the man for the job, whose stats last year included 20 touchdowns to only 6 interceptions.  However, the real heroes of the team will be senior running back Rashaad Penny and the offensive line led by right guard Antonio Rosales.  The defense also has plenty of talent and experience, most notably linebackers Ryan Dunn and Ronley Lakalaka.

Honestly, all the Aztecs have to do to win this division is to play smart and score a decent amount of points.  To describe how weak this division really is, the only one other team in this 6 team division is projected to finish with a winning record.  That team is Hawaii, a program not long removed from the Bottom 10, a weekly ESPN blog describing the 10 worst college football teams in the nation.  The other four teams in this division: Fresno State, Nevada, San Jose State, and UNLV (University of Nevada Las Vegas) are so weak they could very well be making plenty of appearances on the Bottom 10 this season.

Championship Game Winners:

Boise State Broncos 

3.  Conference USA (C-USA)

C-USA East Champions:

Western Kentucky Hilltoppers

The job of a first year head coach is made a lot easier when he takes the reins of a program with an established quarterback.  New head coach Mike Samford finds himself in just that position, and with senior Mike White, that position is especially fantastic.  Last year, White was the engine behind a nearly unstoppable offense that scored an impressive 45.5 points per game, an impressive mark that was the highest in the nation.  On top of that, they accumulated a conference-best 523 yards per game.  The top receivers from last year are gone, but junior Nicarius Fant scored two touchdowns last year so the receiving corps has a good foundation on which to rebuild.  On defense things look even better with five returning starters from a defense that allowed the fewest amount of points per game in the conference and the 2nd fewest rushing yards per game in the entire nation.  If all goes according to plan, Samford's first year will be capped off with a conference championship. 

C-USA West Champions:

Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles

This pick is somewhat of a risky one.  The departure of quarterback Nick Mullens, one of the greatest passers in school history, leaves a gaping hole at that position.  I'm counting on running back Ito Smith, who owns stats of over 3,000 rushing yards and 1,000 receiving yards, to have another great season.  Even more critical to my decision is the strength of their secondary, loaded with three senior cornerbacks and two senior safeties.  The Southern Miss defense gave up the fewest passing yards per game in the conference last year and the fewest total yards.  Their key challenger in the division race will be the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs and their productive passing attack.  I'm counting on the Golden Eagles' secondary to turn the field into a no-fly-zone when they travel to Louisiana Tech in late October.

Championship Game Winners:

Western Kentucky Hilltoppers

4.  Mid-American Conference (MAC)

MAC East Champions: 

Ohio Bobcats

The Ohio Bobcats have been one of the most consistent teams in the whole of the MAC, competing for division titles year in and year out.  Their strength is their rushing defense which will be highlighted once again by linebackers Chad Moore and Quentin Pollard.  The Bobcats must have more consistent play from quarterback Quinton Maxwell or backup Nathan Rourke, but even without it they won a division title last year.  Rising to give Ohio a run for their money is in-state rival Miami (Ohio).  The Miami Redhawks started off last season 0-6 before giving the reins to backup quarterback Gus Ragland.  With Ragland behind center the Redhawks improved drastically, winning their final six games and qualifying for a bowl game.  In their bowl game, they faced a team from the much tougher SEC in Mississippi State but only lost by a point!  The Bobcats better be ready when the Redhawks come to town in late October.

MAC West Champions:

Toledo Rockets

Led by senior quarterback Logan Woodside, a poised leader who threw for over 4,100 yards and 45 touchdowns last year, the Rockets are looking to blast off to a conference title.  Combined with a defense with 7 returning starters, Toledo appears to be a complete team.  The defense will have to improve, though, as they ranked in the middle of the conference in terms of yards given up per game. If they want to improve on their 9-4 record, the defense must become stronger and they have to force more turnovers.  

Championship Game Winners:

Toledo Rockets

5.  Sun Belt Conference

This conference has 12 teams but two of them are leaving next year so the conference has decided to delay the inaugural championship game until the 2018-2019 season.  This is the last season in which any conference championship will be decided by the regular season results.  Times sure are changing in college football for the better.  There will no longer be any ties for conference championships. 

Sun Belt Conference Champions:

Apalachian State Mountaineers

In the 2015 season Appalachian State made the jump to the top echelon of college football, designated Division 1-A.  Many teams struggle to compete against tougher opponents, but not the Mountaineers. In just their 3rd year of conference play they shared the conference championship with Arkansas State.  But if Appalachian State had played Arkansas State, I'm confident that the Mountaineers would have won.

A large part of the team's success is due to the running game headlined by Jalin Moore, a speedy back who rushed for over 1,400 yards last year.  Many of those yards were gained on what are called stretch runs, simple yet effective running plays in which the offensive line and receivers clear a path to the edge of the defense. If the running back can turn the corner before the linebackers get there, he can gain chunks of yards at a time.  Also important is their stout defense led by linebacker Eric Boggs, a talented player who had a team-high 98 tackles in 2016.  When you consider that the Mountaineers almost beat SEC mainstay Tennessee in the Volunteers' own stadium last September, you realize how good they have become in such a short period of time.