My Preseason Picks: 2017: Group of Five

My Preseason Picks of 2017: Group of Five

Although these conferences are not as strong as the Power 5, they still feature exciting conference races between teams with high-scoring offenses and opportunistic defenses.  

1.  American Conference 

American East Champions:

USF (South Florida) Bulls

This pick was certainly one of the easiest ones to make.  The Bulls will be led by returning quarterback Quinton Flowers who amassed 42 touchdowns between passing and rushing.  Their starting lineup on defense is loaded with 6 highly experienced seniors and 3 talented juniors.  On top of that, USF has a noticeably easy schedule that makes it very possible that the Bulls could go undefeated.  New head coach Charlie Strong, fired from Texas after last season, has gleaned enough knowledge from leading a team in the stronger Big 12 Conference to do an adequate job at his new home.

American West Champions:

Memphis Tigers

The West division also features a team with an exceptional returning quarterback.  Riley Ferguson tallied 32 TD passes along with over 3,600 yards.  Supporting him with be a stable of running back, headlined by speedy Doroland Dorceaus.  The Tigers should be able to win their division if they just take care of the football, i.e. limit the turnovers. 

Championship Game Winners:

USF Bulls

2.  Mountain West Conference (MWC)

MWC Mountain Division Champions:

Boise State Broncos

The usual champions of the Mountain West, the Boise State Broncos, have recently fallen off the top of the mountain due to unexpected regular season losses.  This has opened the door for San Diego State to grab a couple conference championships.  But I expect a resurgence out of the Broncos this year with the return of accurate quarterback Brent Rypien.  If he just improves on his decision-making, throwing less needless interceptions in other words, the Broncos will be able to win the close games they lost last year.  The star running back of last year, Jeremy McNichols, has graduated but the Broncos are confident sophomore Alexander Mattison can pick up the slack.  Plus, if the defense can gets their hands on plenty of turnovers, Boise State could find themselves on the top of the mountain again. 

MWC West Division Champions:

San Diego State Aztecs

The Aztecs are a run-heavy offense, not requiring a super talented quarterback to manufacture points. All they need is a solid game manager who makes smart decisions.  Junior Christian Chapman is just the man for the job, whose stats last year included 20 touchdowns to only 6 interceptions.  However, the real heroes of the team will be senior running back Rashaad Penny and the offensive line led by right guard Antonio Rosales.  The defense also has plenty of talent and experience, most notably linebackers Ryan Dunn and Ronley Lakalaka.

Honestly, all the Aztecs have to do to win this division is to play smart and score a decent amount of points.  To describe how weak this division really is, the only one other team in this 6 team division is projected to finish with a winning record.  That team is Hawaii, a program not long removed from the Bottom 10, a weekly ESPN blog describing the 10 worst college football teams in the nation.  The other four teams in this division: Fresno State, Nevada, San Jose State, and UNLV (University of Nevada Las Vegas) are so weak they could very well be making plenty of appearances on the Bottom 10 this season.

Championship Game Winners:

Boise State Broncos 

3.  Conference USA (C-USA)

C-USA East Champions:

Western Kentucky Hilltoppers

The job of a first year head coach is made a lot easier when he takes the reins of a program with an established quarterback.  New head coach Mike Samford finds himself in just that position, and with senior Mike White, that position is especially fantastic.  Last year, White was the engine behind a nearly unstoppable offense that scored an impressive 45.5 points per game, an impressive mark that was the highest in the nation.  On top of that, they accumulated a conference-best 523 yards per game.  The top receivers from last year are gone, but junior Nicarius Fant scored two touchdowns last year so the receiving corps has a good foundation on which to rebuild.  On defense things look even better with five returning starters from a defense that allowed the fewest amount of points per game in the conference and the 2nd fewest rushing yards per game in the entire nation.  If all goes according to plan, Samford's first year will be capped off with a conference championship. 

C-USA West Champions:

Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles

This pick is somewhat of a risky one.  The departure of quarterback Nick Mullens, one of the greatest passers in school history, leaves a gaping hole at that position.  I'm counting on running back Ito Smith, who owns stats of over 3,000 rushing yards and 1,000 receiving yards, to have another great season.  Even more critical to my decision is the strength of their secondary, loaded with three senior cornerbacks and two senior safeties.  The Southern Miss defense gave up the fewest passing yards per game in the conference last year and the fewest total yards.  Their key challenger in the division race will be the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs and their productive passing attack.  I'm counting on the Golden Eagles' secondary to turn the field into a no-fly-zone when they travel to Louisiana Tech in late October.

Championship Game Winners:

Western Kentucky Hilltoppers

4.  Mid-American Conference (MAC)

MAC East Champions: 

Ohio Bobcats

The Ohio Bobcats have been one of the most consistent teams in the whole of the MAC, competing for division titles year in and year out.  Their strength is their rushing defense which will be highlighted once again by linebackers Chad Moore and Quentin Pollard.  The Bobcats must have more consistent play from quarterback Quinton Maxwell or backup Nathan Rourke, but even without it they won a division title last year.  Rising to give Ohio a run for their money is in-state rival Miami (Ohio).  The Miami Redhawks started off last season 0-6 before giving the reins to backup quarterback Gus Ragland.  With Ragland behind center the Redhawks improved drastically, winning their final six games and qualifying for a bowl game.  In their bowl game, they faced a team from the much tougher SEC in Mississippi State but only lost by a point!  The Bobcats better be ready when the Redhawks come to town in late October.

MAC West Champions:

Toledo Rockets

Led by senior quarterback Logan Woodside, a poised leader who threw for over 4,100 yards and 45 touchdowns last year, the Rockets are looking to blast off to a conference title.  Combined with a defense with 7 returning starters, Toledo appears to be a complete team.  The defense will have to improve, though, as they ranked in the middle of the conference in terms of yards given up per game. If they want to improve on their 9-4 record, the defense must become stronger and they have to force more turnovers.  

Championship Game Winners:

Toledo Rockets

5.  Sun Belt Conference

This conference has 12 teams but two of them are leaving next year so the conference has decided to delay the inaugural championship game until the 2018-2019 season.  This is the last season in which any conference championship will be decided by the regular season results.  Times sure are changing in college football for the better.  There will no longer be any ties for conference championships. 

Sun Belt Conference Champions:

Apalachian State Mountaineers

In the 2015 season Appalachian State made the jump to the top echelon of college football, designated Division 1-A.  Many teams struggle to compete against tougher opponents, but not the Mountaineers. In just their 3rd year of conference play they shared the conference championship with Arkansas State.  But if Appalachian State had played Arkansas State, I'm confident that the Mountaineers would have won.

A large part of the team's success is due to the running game headlined by Jalin Moore, a speedy back who rushed for over 1,400 yards last year.  Many of those yards were gained on what are called stretch runs, simple yet effective running plays in which the offensive line and receivers clear a path to the edge of the defense. If the running back can turn the corner before the linebackers get there, he can gain chunks of yards at a time.  Also important is their stout defense led by linebacker Eric Boggs, a talented player who had a team-high 98 tackles in 2016.  When you consider that the Mountaineers almost beat SEC mainstay Tennessee in the Volunteers' own stadium last September, you realize how good they have become in such a short period of time.

   

My Preseason Picks: 2017: Power 5 Conferences

My Preseason Picks: Power 5 Conferences

1. Big Ten Conference

Big Ten East Champions:

Ohio State Buckeyes

The 2016 season for the Buckeyes saw them rack up 11 wins but fall short in what mattered most. They failed to make the Big Ten Championship Game because of an unexpected loss to Penn State, yet managed to impress enough people to snag a spot in the College Football Playoff.   But they were quickly handed a ticket home by eventual champion Clemson in an embarrasing 38-0 loss.

The end of the season left a bad taste in the mouth of the players which was probably why quarterback J.T Barrett decided to return for his senior year.  The coaching staff, including the always competitive head coach Urban Meyer, will be no less determined to ensure this season has a happier ending for the Buckeyes.  The offense will be solid once again with the return of Barrett and his dual-threat abilities.  Adding to the offensive firepower is running back Mike Weber who rushed for over 1,000 yards in his freshman season.  The only question mark is at receiver, where new stars must emerge after most of last year's top receivers have graduated.   More importantly, Barrett must prove he can get the ball to them in high-pressure situations.  The defense will once again be the opposite of porous with two talented upperclassmen at defensive end, two at linebacker, and two in the secondary.  If the Buckeyes can execute on offense and defense, the sky's the limit for what they can achieve.   

Big Ten West Champions:

Wisconsin Badgers

The Big Ten West division is definitely weaker than the East, which makes things easier for a team like Wisconsin.  They do have a hard-nosed defense and a powerful offensive line that opens wide holes for their running backs, but I just don't think they can match up against the best teams in the East.  That being said, no one is going to be overlooking the Badgers on their schedule.  The Badgers are used to being the best of the West are I don't think anyone has the talent to best them.

Championship Game Winners

Ohio State Buckeyes

2.  Southeastern Conference (SEC)

SEC East Champions:

Georgia Bulldogs

Like Tennessee, Georgia is an SEC East that always seems to underperform.  Their defense is solid and at times ferocious. However their offense is the opposite of balanced, relying on their running game to manufacture yards.  Their starting quarterback, Jacob Eason, was a true freshman last year and while he showed poise in a few games, his stats were nowhere close to fantastic.  There is a good possibility that his experiences last year and an off-season of practicing has improved his game though.  Eason will be flanked by two quality running backs in Nick Chubb and Sony Michel who should once again put up solid numbers.  The defense should be a strength for the Bulldogs once again as 10 returning starters make their defensive roster the most eye-catching in the entire division. If Eason can improve as a passer just a little bit, Georgia will quickly become the favorite to win the division. 

SEC West Champions:

Alabama Crimson Tide

I'm sure you are quite surprised to see Alabama as my pick to win anything, but I have realized that it is time to face facts.  The Crimson Tide are the best team in the SEC by far and no one has proven tough enough to unseat them from that position.  Yes, Ole Miss did beat them early in the 2015 season, but did the Rebels go on win the division?  That would be a big fat "No!"  Alabama has won the last 3 SEC Championships due to their always exceptional defense and a stable of running backs that never gets depleted by graduations (you can thank top-notch recruiting for that).  This year's model, running back Bo Scarbrough, is another powerful running back that strikes fear into the hearts of opposing defensive coordinators.  Quarterback Jalen Hurts is another weapon that the Crimson Tide have to hurt the opposition.  

Yes, this team is formidable but they are not invincible.  The bookends to their schedule are fraught with danger: an opening weekend clash with Florida State and the yearly season ending rivalry game against Auburn, a game so intense it is nicknamed the Iron Bowl.   My guess is they will lose one of these games but still make the playoffs.  However, I still believe they are too overconfident to beat the best of the best and will once again fall short of taking home the national championship trophy, which wouldn't fit inside their overflowing trophy case anyway.

Championship Game Winners:

Alabama Crimson Tide 

3.  Pacific American Conference (PAC) 12

PAC 12 North Winners:

Washington Huskies

Last year's Huskies snagged a coveted spot in the College Football Playoffs and this year's team looks very similar.  A total of 13 starters are returning, many of them talented seniors, which doesn't bode well for their conference opponents.  Driving the engine of the Washington offense will be exceptional junior quarterback Jake Browning and the always slippery running back Myles Gaskin.   Gaskin, along with senior Lavon Coleman, will provide a one-two punch of running backs that are already making defensive coordinators in the PAC 12 very nervous.

Making this team even more dangerous is a defense that can best be described as a hungry pack of wolves.  Defensive stars abound in every section of the defense, most notably linebacker Azeem Victor, nose tackle Vita Vea, and free safety Taylor Rapp.  With all this talent and an easy non-conference schedule, I expect the Huskies to make a return trip to the playoffs. 

PAC 12 South Winners:

USC Trojans

After four games last season, the Trojans were sitting on an abysmal 1-3 record and Head Coach Clay Helton was in hot water.  Then the offense switched quarterbacks and USC won their next nine games, concluding their season with a thrilling victory over Penn State in the Rose Bowl.   The quarterback who turned things around was Sam Darnold, a talented freshman who passed for over 3,000 yards and 31 touchdowns.  Now a sophomore, Darnold looks poised to continue where he left off.  Also returning is 1,000 yard rusher Ronald Jones Jr. who will provide stability for an offense that needs to replace two extremely productive wide receivers.

The USC defense has a lack of experience on the defensive line but a strong linebacking corps led by inside linebacker Cameron Smith, who accumulated a team high 83 tackles last year, more than makes up for it.   Their toughest tests this year will be against Texas and Utah but both those contests will be played in southern California, portending good things for the Trojans.  

Championship Game Winners:

 

Washington Huskies  

4.  Big 12 Conference

A little known NCAA rule change allows conferences with only 10 teams to have a conference championship game.  To boost their chances to get one of their teams into the College Football Playoffs, the Big 12 has chosen to create a championship game that will pit the teams with the best two conference records at the end of the season against each other.  I think the top two finishers will be: 

1.  Oklahoma Sooners 

Although narrowly missing out on the playoffs, the Sooners went to the Sugar Bowl where they once again had success with a win over Auburn.  Oklahoma's hopes for a championship were given a gigantic boost when star quarterback Baker Mayfield was granted another year of eligibility.   With Mayfield at the helm, the Sooners are hoping to score an average of more than 40 points a game like they did last year when they scored almost 44 points per game.  Assisting Mayfield are fullback Dimitri Flowers and sure-handed tight end Mark Andrews.  New go-to receivers will have to emerge but with Mayfield slinging passes any receiving corps would perform well.  And the quarterback should be well protected by five returning offensive lineman, a definite luxury for the Sooners.

The defense has always been the weakness of teams in the Big 12 and the Sooners are no different. Last year they gave up almost 270 yards passing a game, 111th in the nation.  If Oklahoma is going to be taken seriously as a playoff contender, cornerbacks Jordan Thomas and Jordan Parker and strong safety Steven Parker will have to play better. 

2.  Oklahoma State Cowboys 

The Cowboys are known as the team that often finds itself in the thick of the race for the Big 12 Championship but never wins it.  Subpar offensive performances in big games are the obvious culprit.  Case in point are the fact that they were held to under 30 points in key road games last year against Baylor and Oklahoma.  Oklahoma State's defense is not built to win games for them and they lost.  Even so, the Cowboys put together a noteworthy 10 win season and are certainly not to be trifled with.

Quarterback Mason Rudolph and wide recever James Washington make up one of the best QB-WR tandems in the country.  Running back Justice Hill, who rushed for over 1,100 yards last year, is confident he can once again impose his version of justice on opposing defenses.  Defensive end Jarrell Owens and linebacker Chad Whitener are mainstays on a defense that performed decently last year.  However, if Oklahoma State wants to win either the "Bedlam" game against Oklahoma or the Big 12 Championship Game, the defense has to improve.

Championship Game Winners:

Oklahoma Sooners

5.  Atlantic Coast Conference (ACC)

ACC Atlantic Champions:

Florida State Seminoles 

To put it simply, the expectations for the Seminoles are sky high.  After a breakout freshman season, quarterback Deondre François is poised to light up scoreboards again. Florida State did lose powerful running back Dalvin Cook to graduation, but highly lauded new recruit Cam Akers is expected to inject plenty of fresh talent into the running back position.  Another obvious strength for the Seminoles is their highly experienced defense.  Three upperclassmen form a very stout defensive line that will make it hard for opposing lineman to open holes or protect the quarterback.  Three senior linebackers will make life even more difficult for opposing offenses.  

The one glaring weakness, at least according to last year's performance, is the offensive line.  They failed to work together and allowed François to be sacked FAR too many times.  They willhave to show major signs of improvement if the Seminoles are to have a great season.  And they better do it before the season even starts, because they face Alabama in Week 1!  I really hope the offensive line does play well so that the Crimson Tide will have a good chance of suffering an early season loss.

ACC Coastal Champions:

Miami Hurricanes

The Coastal is by far the weaker of the ACC's two divisions.  In the recent past any team that has been in the driver's seat to win the division late in the year has subsequently fallen flat on their faces. This year, no teams stick out as having the ingredients to dominate the division.  I picked Miami in large part because of the great leadership of 2nd-year coach Mark Richt, a former long time head coach at Georgia.  Plus, they have a solid running back in Mark Walton who rushed for over 1,000 yards last year.  Hopefully the days of Miami being described by comedian Jeff Dunham as "the Miami light showers with some wind" on College Gameday will soon be over.

Championship Game Winners:

Florida State Seminoles 

College Football Playoff Predictions

Remember, only the top 4 teams in the country make it into the playoffs.

Playoff Teams

1. Florida State Seminoles 
2. Alabama Crimson Tide 
3. Ohio State Buckeyes 
4. Washington Huskies

If my predictions are correct, the #1 and #4 teams, Florida State and Washington will play in the Sugar Bowl, and Alabama and Ohio State will meet in the Rose Bowl.  The winners will play in the brand new Falcons Stadium in Atlanta for the National Championship.  Will my predictions prove true?  Only time will tell.